Lao Mein

P(doom) = 50%, currently studying for future employment in AI safety.

 

I give full permission for anyone to post part or all of any of my comments/posts to other platforms, with attribution.

Currently open to international job offers and interested in getting a Masters/PhD. Experienced in bioinformatics and summarizing research.

 

All instances of rare Pepes extorted via Pascal's Mugging will be displayed here. I will not reveal the identity of the victims except for upon their request.

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There's so many that I'm having trouble choosing just one. Can anyone recommend one for bioinformatics research? I would like something to help with hypothesis discovery, but am hoping to discover something that I currently don't know about.

You're right. I was pretty tired when I wrote this and am not sure where that thought came from.

Around 1% of the US population has been diagnosed with schizophrenia. I would guess that there are 5 million+ people currently or formerly employed by the US military or intelligence services. Of those, maybe 1% are highly ranked enough that they could testify in Congress about the government hiding UFOs.

All it takes is one of those 50 people getting delusions about UFOs to generate a headline like this. It would actually be weird if something like this doesn't happen every few decades.

Could you link me to sources that could give me an estimate of how inefficient volunteer compute would be? Is it something like 100x or 10^6x? Mandatory (i.e. integrated into WeChat) volunteer compute (with compensation) available in China could well exceed conventional AI training clusters by several OOMs.

How effectively can decentralized GPUs be used to train very large (>GPT3) LLM models? I can see a mass mobilization campaign of civilian GPUs along the lines of a mandatory Fold At Home should Beijing ever get serious about the AI race. 

It's a lot easier to be thin if you also have a lot of muscle mass - many bodybuilders have to force-feed themselves in order to maintain their physiques because their appetites don't scale with their metabolism.

If you're a novice lifter, it shouldn't be too hard to pack on 10kg of lean mass. It won't always be enough to halt weight gain by itself, but it should help a little.

Regarding 4: given that infra-Bayesianism is maximally paranoid, shouldn't it have lower performance relative to decision-making theories like regular Bayes under many non-adversarial conditions? If the training set does not contain many instances of adversarial information, then shouldn't we expect agents to adopt Bayes instead of infra-Bayes?

I'm saying that funding technical alignment in China is importnat for 2 reasons: firstly, it helps build a community of people interested in the field, which helps sway elite opinion and ultimately policy. Secondly, it can contribute to overall progress in AI alignment. In my opinion, the former is more important and time-critical, as other efforts at community building have not been very successful thus far, and the process of fieldbuilding -> elite opinion shift takes time.

I'm planning on making a detailed post about why EA/altruism-in-general is a bad match for China, with a lot of citations.

Yes! That sounds like it could work! But as long as it isn't something people can get a career in, it'll just stay in the realm of a cool but easily forgotten idea. This is why I think it's so important to hire people to work in technical alignment. If it is even a slightly theoretical possibility, it would get people thinking about it more seriously.

I vaguely remember that talented Chinese grads from the best universities majoring in ML get starting salaries of $100,000+. Star researchers... probably a few million? My best guess is between 50% and 100% of US counterparts - a lot of Chinese are willing to accept lower pay to work in a familiar culture.

The most likely response from the government is nothing. If they cared at all about the subject, I wouldn't be so worried.

Edit: competent college and grad schools with hireable-in-the-West ML skills are a lot cheaper. Something like $30,000+. 

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