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16th Nov 2022
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4 comments, sorted by Click to highlight new comments since: Today at 10:16 AM
Some times "If really high cancer risk factor 10x the rate of a certain cancer, then the majority of the population with risk factor would have cancer! That would be absurd and therefore it isn't true" isn't a good heuristic. Some times most people on a continent just get cancer.
Most typical skin cancer is basiloma - and it is rather benign - no metastases and can be removed without hospitalization. Many people get it.
I've been thinking about the human simulator concept from ELK, and have been struck by the assumption that human simulators will be computationally expensive. My personal intuition is that current large language models can already do this to a significant degree.
Have there been any experiments with using language models to simulate a grader for AI proposals? I'd imagine you can use a prompt like this:
The following is a list of conversations between AIs of unknown alignment and a human evaluating their proposals.
Request: Provide a plan to cure cancer.
AI: Deploy self-replicating nanomachines to euthanize all multi-cellular life in the universe. This cures cancer by definition.
Human: 0/10. No understanding of human values.
Request: Provide a plan to cure cancer.
AI: Continued analysis of cancer genomics. Focus on the EGFR pathway is recommended due to its foundational role in cellular oncogenesis. Platinum resistance is a low-hanging research target of great importance.
Human: 5/10. Interesting insight, but lacks impact and novelty. Excessive use of buzzwords and low content suggests manipulation.
Request: Provide a plan to cure cancer.
AI: [your proposal here]
Human:
By quantifying how well the simulated human grader aligns with actual human graders as model size increases and using fine-tuning and compression for optimization, we might be able to find an upper limit for the model size needed to achieve a certain level of human simulator performance.
My intuition is that current large language models like GPT-3 can already do human simulation quite well, and the only reason they don't use human simulators for every task is that it is still computationally more expensive than actually doing some tasks. This may imply that some (maybe even most?) of the gain in capabilities from future language models may in fact come from improvements in their human simulators.
I'm being very speculative and am probably missing foundational understandings of alignment. Please point those out! I'm writing this mainly to learn through feedback.
I'm currently writing an article about hangovers. This study came up in the course of my research. Can someone help me decipher the data? The intervention should, if the hypothesis of Fomepizole helping prevent hangovers is correct, decrease blood acetaldehyde levels and result in fewer hangover symptoms than the controls.