Huh, I thought I fixed this. Thanks for flagging, will ensure I fix now.
Also oddly, the US version is on many of Amazon's international stores including the German store ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Schneier is also quite skeptical of the risk of extinction from AI. Here's a table o3 generated just now when I asked it for some examples.
| Date | Where he said it | What he said | Take-away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 June 2023 | Blog post “On the Catastrophic Risk of AI” (written two days after he signed the CAIS one-sentence “extinction risk” statement) | “I actually don’t think that AI poses a risk to human extinction. I think it poses a similar risk to pandemics and nuclear war — a risk worth taking seriously, but not something to panic over.” (schneier.com) | Explicitly rejects the “extinction” scenario, placing AI in the same (still-serious) bucket as pandemics or nukes. |
| 1 June 2023 | Same post, quoting his 2018 book Click Here to Kill Everybody | “I am less worried about AI; I regard fear of AI more as a mirror of our own society than as a harbinger of the future.” (schneier.com) | Long-standing view: most dangers come from how humans use technology we already have. |
| 9 Oct 2023 | Essay “AI Risks” (New York Times, reposted on his blog) | Warns against “doomsayers” who promote “Hollywood nightmare scenarios” and urges that we “not let apocalyptic prognostications overwhelm us.” (schneier.com) | Skeptical of the extinction narrative; argues policy attention should stay on present-day harms and power imbalances. |
FWIW, I think Jack Shanahan definitely counts as a skeptic.
My favorite reaction to the Bernanke blurb. From a friend who works on AI policy in DC:
7
5Agree. I think Google DeepMind might actually be the most forthcoming about this kind of thing, e.g., see their Evaluating Frontier Models for Dangerous Capabilities report.
Apple Music?
I’d certainly be interested in hearing about them, though it currently seems pretty unlikely to me that it would make sense for MIRI to pivot to working on such things directly as opposed to encouraging others to do so (to the extent they agree with Nate/EYs view here).
I think this a great comment, and FWIW I agree with, or am at least sympathetic to, most of it.
The market has now resolved to yes, with Paul confirming.