peter_hurford

Comments

What gripes do you have with Mustachianism?

Mr. Money Mustache has a lot of really good advice that I find a lot of value from. However, I think Mr. Money Mustache underestimates the ease and impact of opportunities to grow income relative to cutting spending - especially if you're in (or can be in) a high-earning field like tech. Doubling your income will put you on a much faster path than cutting your spending a further 5%.

What are the best tools for recording predictions?

PredictionBook is really great for lightweight, private predictions and does everything you're looking for. Metaculus is great for more fully-featured predicting and I believe also supports private questions, but may be a bit of overkill for your use case. A spreadsheet also seems more than sufficient, as others have mentioned.

Peter's COVID Consolidated Brief - 29 Apr

Thanks. I'll definitely aim to produce them more quickly... this one got away from me.

Coronavirus: the four levels of social distancing, and when and why we might transition between them

My understanding is that we also have and might in the future also spend a decent amount of time in a "level 2.5", where some but not all non-essential businesses are open (i.e., no groups larger than ten, restaurants are closed to dine-in, hair salons are open).

SARS-CoV-2 pool-testing algorithm puzzle

A binary search strategy still could be more efficient, depending on the ratio of positives to negatives.

Is the coronavirus the most important thing to be focusing on right now?

Not really an answer, but a statement and a question - I imagine this is literally the least neglected issue in the world right now. How much does that affect the calculus? How much should we defer to people with more domain expertise?

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