Does the chance evolution got really lucky cancel out with the chance that evolution got really unlucky? So maybe this doesn't change the mean but does increase the variance?as for how much to increase the variance, maybe like an additional +/-1 OOM tacked on to the existing evolution anchor?I'm kinda thinking there's like a 10% chance you'd have to increase it by 10x and a 10% chance you'd have to decrease it by 10x. But maybe I'm not thinking about this right?
There are a lot of different ways you can talk about "efficiency" here. The main thing I am thinking about with regard to the key question "how much FLOP would we expect transformative AI to require?" is whether, when using a neural net anchor (not evolution) to add a 1-3 OOM penalty to FLOP needs due to 2022-AI systems being less sample efficient than humans (requiring more data to produce the same capabilities) and with this penalty decreasing over time given expected algorithmic progress. The next question would be how much more efficient potential AI (e.g., 2100-AI not 2022-AI) could be given fundamentals of silicon vs. neurons, so we might know how much algorithmic progress could affect this.
I think it is pretty clear right now that 2022-AI is less sample efficient than humans. I think other forms of efficiency (e.g., power efficiency, efficiency of SGD vs. evolution) are less relevant to this.
Yeah ok 80%. I also do concede this is a very trivial thing, not like some "gotcha look at what stupid LMs can't do no AGI until 2400".
This is admittedly pretty trivial but I am 90% sure that if you prompt GPT4 with "Q: What is today's date?" it will not answer correctly. I think something like this would literally be the least impressive thing that GPT4 won't be able to do.
Is it ironic that the link to "All the posts I will never write" goes to a 404 page?
Does it get better at Metaculus forecasting?
This sounds like something that could be done as an organization creating a job for it, which could help with mentorship/connections/motivation/job security relative to expecting people to apply to EAIF/LTFFMy organization (Rethink Priorities) is currently hiring for research assistants and research fellows (among other roles) and some of their responsibilities will include distillation.
These conversations are great and I really admire the transparency. It's really nice to see discussions that normally happen in private happen instead in public where everyone can reflect, give feedback, and improve their own thoughts. On the other hand, the combined conversations combined to a decent-sized novel - LW says 198,846 words! Is anyone considering investing heavily in summarizing the content for people to get involved without having to read all that content?
I don't recall the specific claim, just that EY's probability mass for the claim was in the 95-99% range. The person argued that because EY disagrees with some other thoughtful people on that question, he shouldn't have such confidence.
I think people conflate the very reasonable "I am not going to adopt your 95-99% range because other thoughtful people disagree and I have no particular reason to trust you massively more than I trust other people" with the different "the fact that other thoughtful people mean there's no way you could arrive at 95-99% confidence" which is false. I think thoughtful people disagreeing with you is decent evidence you are wrong but can still be outweighed.