2025-08 update. Anthropic now defaults to (you can opt out) using your chats for AI training, see for example https://techcrunch.com/2025/08/28/anthropic-users-face-a-new-choice-opt-out-or-share-your-data-for-ai-training/
I think IMO results were driven by general purpose advances, but I agree I can't conclusively prove it because we don't know details. Hopefully we will learn more as time goes by.
An informal argument: I think currently agentic software engineering is blocked on context rot, among other things. I expect IMO systems to have improved on this, since IMO time control is 1.5 hours per problem.
I think non-formal IMO gold was unexpected and we heard explicitly that it won't be in GPT-5. So I would wait to see how it would pan out. It may not matter in 2025 but I think it can in 2026.
2I think it is important to note that Gemini 2.5 Pro Capable of Winning Gold at IMO 2025, with good enough scaffolding and prompt engineering.
Do you have any Solomonoff inductor you know? I don't, and I would like an introduction.
Ethan Mollick's Using AI Right Now: A Quick Guide from 2025-06 is in the same genre and pretty much says the same thing, but the presentation is a bit different and it may suit you better, so check it out. Naturally it doesn't discuss Grok 4, but it also does discuss some things missing here.
Anthropic does have a data program, although it is only for Claude Code, and it is opt in. See About the Development Partner Program. It gives you 30% discount in exchange.
CloudMatrix was not, but Huawei Ascend has been there for a long time, and was used to train LLM even back in 2022. I didn't realize AI 2027 predated CloudMatrix but I still think ignoring China for Compute Production was unjustified.
This is a good argument and I think it is mostly true, but this absolutely should be in AI 2027 Compute Forecast page. Simply not saying a word about the topic makes it looks unserious and incompetent. In fact, that reaction happened repeatedly in my discussion with my friends in South Korea.
I don't think this is true. Amodei on AI: "There's a 25% chance that things go really, really badly".