This is awful. What do most of these items have to do with acquiring the map that reflects the territory? (I got 65, but that's because I've wasted my life in this lame cult. It's not cool or funny.)

On the one hand, I also wish Shulman would go into more detail on the "Supposing we've solved alignment and interpretability" part. (I still balk a bit at "in democracies" talk, but less so than I did a couple years ago.) On the other hand, I also wish you would go into more detail on the "Humans don't benefit even if you 'solve alignment'" part. Maybe there's a way to meet in the middle??

It seems pretty plausible to me that if AI is bad, then rationalism did a lot to educate and spur on AI development. Sorry folks.

What? This apology makes no sense. Of course rationalism is Lawful Neutral. The laws of cognition aren't, can't be, on anyone's side.

The philosophical ideal can still exert normative force even if no humans are spherical Bayesian reasoners on a frictionless plane. The disjunction ("it must either the case that") is significant: it suggests that if you're considering lying to someone, you may want to clarify to yourself whether and to what extent that's because they're an enemy or because you don't respect them as an epistemic peer. Even if you end up choosing to lie, it's with a different rationale and mindset than someone who's never heard of the normative ideal and just thinks that white lies can be good sometimes.

I definitely do not agree with the (implied) notion that it is only when dealing with enemies that knowingly saying things that are not true is the correct option

There's a philosophically deep rationale for this, though: to a rational agent, the value of information is nonnegative. (Knowing more shouldn't make your decisions worse.) It follows that if you're trying to misinform someone, it must either the case that you want them to make worse decisions (i.e., they're your enemy), or you think they aren't rational.

white lies or other good-faith actions

What do you think "good faith" means? I would say that white lies are a prototypical instance of bad faith, defined by Wikipedia as "entertaining or pretending to entertain one set of feelings while acting as if influenced by another."

Frustrating! What tactic could get Interlocutor un-stuck? Just asking them for falsifiable predictions probably won't work, but maybe proactively trying to pass their ITT and supplying what predictions you think their view might make would prompt them to correct you, à la Cunningham's Law?

Senior MIRI leadership explored various alternatives, including reorienting the Agent Foundations team’s focus and transitioning them to an independent group under MIRI fiscal sponsorship with restricted funding, similar to AI Impacts. Ultimately, however, we decided that parting ways made the most sense.

I'm surprised! If MIRI is mostly a Pause advocacy org now, I can see why agent foundations research doesn't fit the new focus and should be restructured. But the benefit of a Pause is that you use the extra time to do something in particular. Why wouldn't you want to fiscally sponsor research on problems that you think need to be solved for the future of Earth-originating intelligent life to go well? (Even if the happy-path plan is Pause and superbabies, presumably you want to hand the superbabies as much relevant prior work as possible.) Do we know how Garrabrant, Demski, et al. are going to eat??

Relatedly, is it time for another name change? Going from "Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence" to "Machine Intelligence Research Institute" must have seemed safe in 2013. (You weren't unambiguously for artificial intelligence anymore, but you were definitely researching it.) But if the new–new plan is to call for an indefinite global ban on research into machine intelligence, then the new name doesn't seem appropriate, either?

Simplicia: I don't really think of "humanity" as an agent that can make a collective decision to stop working on AI. As I mentioned earlier, it's possible that the world's power players could be convinced to arrange a pause. That might be a good idea! But not being a power player myself, I tend to think of the possibility as an exogenous event, subject to the whims of others who hold the levers of coordination. In contrast, if alignment is like other science and engineering problems where incremental progress is possible, then the increments don't need to be coordinated.

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