863

LESSWRONG
LW

862
Personal Blog

15

The Singularity as Religion (yes/no links)

by lukeprog
12th Apr 2011
1 min read
88

15

Personal Blog

15

The Singularity as Religion (yes/no links)
18JoshuaZ
12curiousepic
1Kevin
9benelliott
9CarlShulman
4benelliott
8CarlShulman
1benelliott
6JoshuaZ
5ata
2Vladimir_Nesov
1[anonymous]
9NihilCredo
5wedrifid
9Vladimir_Nesov
4TheOtherDave
8Vladimir_M
3TheOtherDave
3Dr_Manhattan
1Skatche
0Halfwit
0fubarobfusco
-6JohnH
10Vladimir_Nesov
9TheOtherDave
-3JohnH
5JoshuaZ
0JohnH
4JoshuaZ
-1JohnH
0JoshuaZ
0JohnH
2TheOtherDave
-2JohnH
2JoshuaZ
-2JohnH
0JoshuaZ
0JohnH
0TheOtherDave
8JoshuaZ
3Sniffnoy
0benelliott
1JoshuaZ
7Alicorn
11Vladimir_Nesov
0benelliott
1JoshuaZ
0benelliott
6jimrandomh
3Sniffnoy
1JohnH
2Sniffnoy
0JoshuaZ
-2JohnH
3jsalvatier
-2JohnH
0JoshuaZ
-6JohnH
-1JoshuaZ
-2JohnH
2JoshuaZ
1JohnH
-1Sniffnoy
-1JohnH
0Sniffnoy
-4JohnH
0Sniffnoy
0JohnH
5Sniffnoy
-2JohnH
0JoshuaZ
0Sniffnoy
0JohnH
0JoshuaZ
-2JohnH
0JoshuaZ
2JohnH
7Scott Alexander
1JoshuaZ
0JohnH
5benelliott
-2JohnH
1benelliott
-2JohnH
0benelliott
-2JohnH
4benelliott
0[anonymous]
New Comment
88 comments, sorted by
top scoring
Click to highlight new comments since: Today at 10:01 PM
Some comments are truncated due to high volume. (⌘F to expand all)Change truncation settings
[-]JoshuaZ14y180

There is a subset of the pro-Singularity individuals that is acting in an a very religious fashion. See prior discussion here where ata pointed to the Singularity 2045 Facebook group which includes the text:

To raise awareness of the Singularity, which is expected to occur no later than the year 2045, we must reach out to everyone on the 1st day of every month.

At 20:45 hours (8:45pm) or earlier on the 1st day of each month we will send SINGULARITY MESSAGES to friends or strangers.

Example message:

"Nanobot revolution, AI aware, technological utopia: Singularity2045."

Year 2045 is our deadline for the Singularity. Heightened awareness will ensure the Singularity happens sooner rather than later. Our goal is to make the Singularity happen by 2045 at the latest.

This isn't just a small group of random people either. Michael Anissimov and Aubrey de Grey are both administrators.

Reply
[-]curiousepic14y120

I would hope this is simply a case of both of these individuals joining any singularity-related FB groups for PR, and the original admin seeing this and granting them admin privileges.

Reply
1Kevin14y
Yup.
9benelliott14y
Does anyone know where the 2045 figure came from? Is there anything more to it than "hmm, we need a date that's distant enough to not strain plausibility but close enough that most people expect to still be alive".
9CarlShulman14y
The exact number is Kurzweil's predicted date from his book "The Singularity is Near."
4benelliott14y
Well, I suppose that answer's the question of why the facebook group uses it. Any idea why Kurzweil chose it? Was there any kind of quantitative thinking involved? I'm not accusing anyone, its a question that currently leaves me puzzled, so I'd be interested in seeing if he has any kind of justification.
8CarlShulman14y
Projecting his double exponential growth of computer hardware he gets total computations by computers exceeding computations in human brains (using his estimate) by a factor of a billion around then I think.
1benelliott14y
Thanks, I'll have to look into it further.
6JoshuaZ14y
It is one of the more common times for the Singularity. Timtyler made a graph a while ago of Singularity claims and I think that the mean was around 2040. I suspect that you've hit part of what is going on, as well as general wishful thinking. This SMBC seems relevant.
5ata14y
I was similarly somewhat alarmed by that when I found it, but I think for the most part it's just one very (um...) enthusiastic person. (curiousepic (below) is almost certainly correct about why some non-crazy persons are administrators of the Facebook group.) I'd bet that nobody actually does the monthly 20:45 SINGULARITY MESSAGES thing.
2Vladimir_Nesov14y
This particular failure doesn't include the further hundreds of people who joined.
1[anonymous]14y
Admin on Facebook isn't opt-in, it's more like they clicked "yes" when invited to join the group and then the group creator set them as admins in order to increase the status of his group.
[-]NihilCredo14y90

Myself, I am less disturbed by people taking the Singularity as if it were the Rapture than I am by people taking the Singularity as if it were just the excuse they needed to feel happy about slacking off and underachieving.

"The Singularity is my retirement plan", that sort of thing. Ew.

Reply
5wedrifid14y
"The Singularity is my retirement plan" is actually a rational attitude to have given a slight possibility of a successful singularity. This should be a motivating factor not an excuse for slacking. "You can't take it with you" and "you're going to die anyway" stop being legitimate excuses. It prompts desperate action.
[-]Vladimir_Nesov14y90

There are different questions here:

  • Plausibility of the idea itself, in various specific senses.
  • Sanity of specific groups associated with the idea.

In case of Singularity, neither of these senses is trivial. Quite a few Singularity believers are cult material, and there are senses of "Singularity" that are clearly wrong.

Reply
[-]TheOtherDave14y40

Well, it might conceivably be worth asking the question "Does the Singularity hypothesis share enough features with religious hypotheses that organizations dedicated to thinking about it run a significant risk of demonstrating other attributes of religious/theological organizations?"

Along with the related "If so, would that be a bad thing, and what could we do to mitigate that risk?"

That said, my own answers are "Not especially, although some of the same sorts of people who would otherwise be attracted to religious concept-cluster... (read more)

Reply
8Vladimir_M14y
You're forgetting the most important aspect of the issue. If there is a problem with technology-related existential risk, then it's important to get high-status people to understand it and take it seriously. However, if the issue is automatically associated in the public mind with low-status people and presumed crackpots, this will become far more difficult. It doesn't matter how good a case you have that the problem is serious, if its very mention will trigger people's crackpot heuristics and make them want to distance themselves from you for fear of low-status contamination.
3TheOtherDave14y
I suppose. Though it seems like the easiest way to engage with that aspect is from the other direction: figure out what the high-status "paint" is and start engaging in discussions of the issue using that paint. Though if "the Singularity" is already tarred with low status, then presumably this isn't the right location to do that.
[-]Dr_Manhattan14y30

Wally Weaver: You see, at the time I was misquoted. I never said 'The Super-man exists and he is American', what I said was 'God exists and he is American'. Now if you begin to feel an intense and crushing feeling of religious terror at the concept, don't be alarmed. That indicates only that you are still sane. (Watchmen)

There is something to it.

Reply
[-]Skatche14y10

There's a rather uncommon theological position - espoused by Paolo Soleri (and perhaps by others) - that God, the rapture, etc. are better regarded as a potential future, as something we have a responsibility to create, than as something pre-existing; in this view, religious texts can be viewed as imperfect but still visionary accounts of what such a thing might look like. The Singularity hypothesis seems to fit better in this model of religion than in more mainstream models. Soleri's theology seems far less pathological than religions tend to be, since it calls for both concrete action and accurate models of reality, so maybe this isn't such a bad thing.

Reply
[-]Halfwit12y00

The line I came up with, when asking the question to myself, was this: If the singularity is a religion, it is the only religion with a plausible mechanism of action.

Reply
[-]fubarobfusco14y00

Religion isn't just a set of "hypotheses", though; it's also a set of human social behaviors. Religions entail various sorts of group and individual practices — such as worship ritual, fellowship, prayer or meditation, study of received texts, adherence to charismatic leaders, moral correction of "straying" members, instruction of children, evangelism of adults, rites of passage (including baptisms, weddings, and funerals), financial support of institutions and leaders, and so forth.

Not every "religion" has all of these, and s... (read more)

Reply
[+]JohnH14y-60
Moderation Log
More from lukeprog
View more
Curated and popular this week
88Comments

  • The Cult of Kurzweil
  • The Singularity as Religion
  • Rapture of the Nerds, Not
My own opinion is that it's not worth much to argue over the boundaries around a vague term like 'religion,' and of course the question should not be 'Does the Singularity hypothesis share some features with religious hypotheses' but instead 'Is the Singularity hypothesis plausible, and what are its likely consequences?'