Replicating the replication crisis with GPT-3?

by skybrian1 min read22nd Jul 20209 comments



I am getting worried that people are having so much fun doing interesting stuff with GPT-3 and AI Dungeon that they're forgetting how easy it is to fool yourself. Maybe we should think about how many different cognitive biases are in play here? Here are some features that make it particularly easy during casual exploration.

First, it works much like autocomplete, which makes it the most natural thing in the world to "correct" the transcript to be more interesting. You can undo and retry, or trim off extra text if it generates more than you want.

Randomness is turned on by default, so if you try multiple times then you will get multiple replies and keep going until you get a good one. It would be better science but less fun to keep the entire distribution rather than stopping at a good one. Randomness also makes a lot of gamblers' fallacies more likely.

Suppose you don't do that. Then you have to decide whether to share the transcript. You will probably share the interesting transcripts and not the boring failures, resulting in a "file drawer" bias.

And even if you don't do that, "interesting" transcripts will be linked to and upvoted and reshared, for another kind of survivor bias.

What other biases do you think will be a problem?