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What are the Nth Order Effects of the Coronavirus?

by Yoav Ravid 1 min read7th Apr 20207 comments

9


Some were easily foreseeable - like travel bans, lockdowns, and economic damage.

Some were made total sense in retrospect but were not an obvious think to think about - Like an increase in domestic violence (and, consequentially, shelters being overwhelmed).

Let's make a list of both the easily foreseeable, and especial the not easily foreseeable, nth order effects from the virus.

If you can add a source or extra details it's good, but the main point is to just mention the possible effects so someone doesn't have to try thinking of all of them on his own.

If you want to say what order effect something is (second order, third order, etc..) that's extra cool.

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Religious attendance is down already, ideally to zero. What are the long term effects of that?

Brainstorm:

  • Permanently weaker social ties, especially among the elderly and rural.
    • -> More depression, suicide, addiction
  • Longer time to notice that someone has died and for the body to be discovered (for suicides or otherwise).
  • Families that rely on church assistance go hungry, leading to permanent physical and mental deficits for children.
  • Churches receive fewer donations (both because of lack of physical presence and the recession), some are forced to close.
    • I wanted to make a numerical prediction for this but couldn't find numbers on # of churches over time except for LDS, which has been growing.
  • I expect LDS to make it through this pretty well, possibly even strengthened, because they've led their members to prepare for this and because I expect them to institute social reinforcement over distance.
  • Speed up of the transition to digital services. Gains reduce but do not entirely disappear when social distancing is lifted.
  • Membership takes a permanent hit, faster than counterfactually.

Lots of film and television studios cut their budget for the entire year in addition to delaying filming of on-going programs. End of the golden age of TV?

https://nypost.com/2020/03/13/all-the-tv-shows-and-movies-delayed-or-canceled-over-coronavirus/