Here I try to curate what is, to my knowledge, the most extensive list of previous prediction market projects.

This is useful because it provides a reference class to answer the question: “Why is our society inadequate at building functional futures markets for basically anything beyond equities, currencies and commodities, despite the massive benefits this would bring (see e.g. Arrow et al., 2008)?”

In this vein, I aim to primarily focus on real-money projects that might have scaled to something like an institutionalised exchange (and thus focus less on play-money projects, consulting companies offering a more nebolous “collective intelligence”, or forecasting platforms which are not actually markets).

I post this spreadsheet publicly despite its incompleteness, as doing so is likely the best way to complete it.

Feedback is very welcome.

If you -- yes you! -- are keen to help, the single most useful 15-30 min task would be to further research a cell in the column “Shut-down date and reason”, and comment with links/findings.

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2 comments, sorted by Click to highlight new comments since: Today at 5:19 PM

It's really valuable to make records like this. Insofar as it's accurate, and any reviewers can add to it, that's great. (Perhaps in the future it could be a wiki page of some sort, but for now I think it was a very valuable thing that got posted in 2018.)