It's bumpy because either "normal" Deep Learning progress will get us there or there is a big roadblock ahead that will require a major scientific breakthrough.
The Deep Learning scenario creates a bump within the next two decades I would say.
Whole brain simulation could create another bump but I don't know where.
The "major scientific breakthrough" scenario doesn't create a bump. It could've happened yesterday.
For example, you might think:
For that matter, any non-exponential distribution has this property, where the non-occurrence of the event by a certain time will change your expectation of it going forward. I'm curious if people think this is the case for AGI, and if so, why. (Also curious if this question has been asked before.)