Stephen Martin's Shortform

Stephen Martin

This is a special post for quick takes by Stephen Martin. Only they can create top-level comments. Comments here also appear on the Quick Takes page and All Posts page.

Of the 44 data center restrictions/moratoriums on the ballot in 2026, 43 passed.

https://datacentersontheballot.com

Not all of them are "restrictions/moratoriums":

Screenshot 2026-11-04 at 11.54.28 AM.png

4DirectedEvolution1h

98% of towns that proposed restrictions on datacenters passed them. Presumably, towns reacting to specific datacenter proposals were chosen for by developers specifically because they were thought to be the most attractive places to build from a business perspective. Why would the next set of towns considering datacenter projects react differently? If anything, I'd anticipate that they'll face even steeper resistance. The next question is whether states override local rules. But with such massive opposition to these projects, that is hard for me to imagine in the short term.

4Noosphere8931m

The main reason I expect this is for 2 reasons: 1. Data center inputs, unlike almost anything else are much more subsitutable than any other input, and can be built in places where humans don't care to raise NIMBY concerns. 2. Efficiency gains from AI are absolutely massive, and while they don't apply to training, they do apply to inference, and even accounting for endogenity, state bans only slow AI progress by 9 days at the absolute most pessimistic. To be honest, the AI industry is lucky that the public rage is towards the input that is the easiest to move and the easiest to subsitute for other input. Alexander McCoy has a longer analysis here (the only change I'd make is that I'd say Florida instead of Texas will be the new data center state.)