I've been wondering about good new topics for LW, and prediction might be one of them.
The effect of the Zika virus-- and human reactions to it-- on birth rates has the combination of being hard enough to be interesting, not being heavily plowed over by partisans, and having a quantitative outcome.
There's a lot of evidence that Zika causes microcephaly, but this isn't confirmed. There's also some reason to think it increases the rate of miscarriages.
Human reactions cover a wide range, including trying to wipe out the mosquitoes, increasing access to birth control, abortions, asking people to put off having children, creating a less-mosquito-friendly environment....
My assumption is that zika will cease to be a serious problem in not too many years, as more women get the disease and acquire immunity before their child-bearing years, but admittedly, this is assuming that zika (or some other disease with a similar infection pattern) is the problem.
Any other good prediction questions?