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If compute is the main bottleneck to AI progress, then one goalpost to watch for is when AI is able to significantly increase the pace of chip design and manufacturing. After writing the above, I searched for work being done in this area and found this article. If these approaches can actually speed up certain steps in this process from taking weeks to just taking a few days, will that increase the pace of Moore's law? Or is Moore's law mainly bottlenecked by problems that will be particularly hard to apply AI to?

There was some previous discussion here.

I have a potential category of questions that could fit on Metaculus and work as an "AGI fire alarm." The questions are of the format "After an AI system achieves task x, how many years will it take for world output to double?"