I know a ukrainian metaculus user moved days before the attack because of the community's forecast
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/#comment-82655
...Just want to say that I moved from Kyiv to Lviv on Feb 13 /entirely/ thanks to this prediction thread and the Metaculus estimates. (Still in Lviv but leaving Ukraine later today.)
It’s hard to estimate the impact, but at the very least I have saved myself an enormous hassle trying to move all my possessions, finding an apartment in Lviv, etc on very short notice — which would have happened otherwise. Of course, worse outcomes were possible too if things had playe
I'm currently thinking of how impactful forecasting is. I'm interested to hear about situations where crowd-sourced forecasting (like Manifold and Metaculus) has influenced your decisions, or cases where you've seen it change someone else's behavior. Has there been a situation in which, if you had not had access to Manifold or Metaculus, you would've made a worse decision?