Arjun Panickssery's Shortform

Arjun Panickssery

This is a special post for quick takes by Arjun Panickssery. Only they can create top-level comments. Comments here also appear on the Quick Takes page and All Posts page.

FiveThirtyEight released their prediction today that Biden currently has a 53% of winning the election | Tweet

The other day I asked:

Should we anticipate easy profit on Polymarket election markets this year? Its markets seem to think that
Biden will die or otherwise withdraw from the race with 23% likelihood
Biden will fail to be the Democratic nominee for whatever reason at 13% likelihood
either Biden or Trump will fail to win nomination at their respective conventions with 14% likelihood
Biden will win the election with only 34% likelihood
Even if gas fees take a few percentage points off we should expect to make money trading on some of this stuff, right (the money is only locked up for 5 months)? And maybe there are cheap ways to transfer into and out of Polymarket?

Probably worthwhile to think about this further, including ways to make leveraged bets.

Given that Biden has dropped out, do you believe that the market was accurately priced at the time?

2DanielFilan2y

I'd now make this bet if you were down. Offer expires in 48 hours.

4Eric Neyman2y

Probably no longer willing to make the bet, sorry. While my inside view is that Harris is more likely to win than Nate Silver's 72%, I defer to his model enough that my "all things considered" view now puts her win probability around 75%.