Scenario analysis: a parody

by Stuart_Armstrong1 min read27th Apr 20177 comments


Personal Blog

Based on a idea from Nick Bostrom.

Suit A: "Welcome to our futurology meeting extravaganza, where we are going to do a complete analysis of the future using... drumroll... Scenario analysis!"

All: "All hail mighty scenario analysis!"

Suit A: "So, what are the big risks in the future?"

Suit B: "Global warming? I heard that's bad."

Suit A: "Indeed it is. What else do we have that's bad?"

Suit C: "How about obesity?"

Suit B: "I still think global warming is rather more important, it's getting hot and..."

Suit C: "Well, my grandfather was fat, and he suffered and died because..."

Suit A: "No need to argue, gentlewomen! We'll simply do a scenario analysis with both variables. So here we have the Sweaty Fat quadrant... Let me put it up on the board:"

Suit A: "Now let's give each scenario a thorough analysis!"

Suit D: "Isn't fat an insulant?"

Suit A: "That's the kind of incisive commentary we need!"



Much later:

Suit C: "So we have an ideal strategy: keep an eye on sweat pants purchase, and adjust our investment accordingly."

Suit D: "What about our social responsibilities?"

Suit A: "Good point."

Suit B: "Well, then we can track the size of suits and ice cream consumption and adjust health spending and gas subsidies in function of these."

Suit A: "Well, I think we've done a fabulous job today; really. No-one could have done a better job predicting than us. And it's all thanks to... Scenario analysis!"

All: "All hail!"


(very tangentially connected to the problem of models that are over-precise in narrow areas)