Sometimes Windows during a system update removes dual boot from my computer and replaces it with Windows-only boot.
... but you don't delete Windows.
I mean, if you let them have an AI war in your computer, then I can see where they might go ahead and do that. But why are you choosing to permit it?
A lot of people need to use software that's only available on Windows. I don't, and on the rare occasion I need to check Windows behaviour I use a cloud instance, so I use a Chromebook instead.
A lot of people need to use software that's only available on Windows.
Maybe once a year I'm forced to do that, but it's been a long time since I've found anything that I couldn't run under emulation (WINE is not not an emulator), or in a VM. And those sandboxes are typically going to be forced to known states at every startup. And they definitely don't have access to any of the juicy information or behavioral pressure points that would motivate the war.
Anyway, I think that most of the software that used to only run under Windows is now starting to only run in "the cloud". Which is of course its own special kind of hell, but not this kind of hell.
That's fine for one offs, but if, like many, your job is essentially "use Excel" then the simplest solution is to just use windows, not mess around with emulators or VMs.
I used to exchange MS office documents with people all the time without running Windows. Admittedly it wasn't "my job to use Excel", but I did it regularly, and I could have used Excel all day if I'd needed to. And that was years ago; it's actually gotten easier to sandbox the software now.
Anyway, all that office stuff is now in the "in the cloud" category, and to the degree it's not, Microsoft wants it to be.
The only things I can think of that might actually be hard to do without putting Windows on the bare metal would be CAD, 3D rendering, simulation, that kind of thing. I'm not sure how well GPU computing works.
Also, a "work" computer is a less likely battleground, since it's likely to be locked down in an "enterprise" configuration that won't let that happen.
Accountants use features of excel that are not available in the cloud (e.g. VBA) all the time.
You are lucky that you don't need these features (and that's great for you), and assuming that therefore nobody has a legitimate reason to use Windows. This is just a really silly blind spot. Excel is just one of a huge amount of software, used day in and day out by a huge number of people (many of whom are self employed so not using an enterprise laptop) for which Windows is the only sensible option.
Perhaps some legislative action to forbid OSes from doing stuff in the background would be reasonable. This regime can't be optimal: the system downloads uninspectable binary blobs, crafted by an entity with questionable incentives, and there's no opt-out.
Security is an issue, but we can have auto-updates only for the security component, and leave the rest to the user.
Not to mention how annoying it is that whenever I start my Windows VM (like once per 1-2 months), the system starts downloading some huge files with no way to stop it, runs out of space, etc.
but most of the population will just succumb to the pressure. Okay Microsoft, if you insist that I use Edge, I will; if you insist that I use Bing, I will; if you insist that I have MSN as my starting web page, I will
Only about 5% of people use edge, with 66% chrome and 17% safari. Bing is similar, with 4% marketshare and Google having about 90%. I don’t know the number with MSN as their starting page (my parents had this), but I’d guess its also lower than you expect. I think you over-estimate the impact of nudge economics
The word "ChatGPT" is already used the way people use "Google". OpenAI has already won that round. The current battle, I think, is to be the first company with the persuasive power to engage in all-encompassing surveillance. Microsoft has computers, but most people are not adept at using them. They might use a few siloed features and nothing else. Many people do not own a computer, but they own a Phone. Phones are easier to use and everyone needs one.
For desktop / OS, it's Microsoft and for phones / web, it's Google. Google will likely be the first to meticulously collect ~all interaction data and not face backlash. We have a generation of kids that is growing up with LLMs and many are "cheating" with them (academically), and have been doing so for over a tenth of their life. It's a bad form of dependence that retards their ability to read and write. Getting these users hooked only to a certain service is what they're both counting on.
Hence, the OS itself will soon provide a lot of functionality via LLMs, rendering external / installable apps moot for the average consumer. I wouldn't be surprised if they both ship something like a simplified, built-in SillyTavern. It's only the "weirdos" and experts that will install alternate services / apps, and these won't be removed by the OS.
The first AI war will be in your computer and/or smartphone.
Companies want to get customers / users. The ones more willing to take "no" for an answer will lose in the competition. You don't need a salesman when an install script (ideally, run without the user's consent) does a better job; and most users won't care.
Sometimes Windows during a system update removes dual boot from my computer and replaces it with Windows-only boot. Sometimes a web browser tells me "I noticed that I am not your default browser, do you want me to register as your default browser?" Sometimes Windows during a system update just registers current Microsoft's browser as a default browser without asking. At least this is what used to happen in the past.
I expect similar dynamics with AIs, soon. The companies will push really hard to make you use their AI. The smaller the difference between the AI capabilities, the more replaceable they are, the more important it will be to get their application to you first, so that you can get used to it, and then stay with it out of habit.
Microsoft has recently added Copilot to Notepad application. The contrast is just... weird. I mean: Notepad, the default plain-text editor in Windows, can an application get simpler than that? And then you add AI, the most advanced invention of humankind, just as a small button (but with a colorful icon) in Notepad's menu. It feels like, dunno, picking up a ball of mud, only to find a sophisticated microchip inside. You can press a key to type a character, hold Shift while typing to write an uppercase character, press Backspace to erase the last character, and... uhm... ask the artificial intelligence to rewrite your text to a formal document, a marketing speech, or a poem. Are you kidding me?
This is because Microsoft really really wants you to use their AI. Just like they want you to use their web browser, to visit their web page every day, etc. Owning your operating system is a convenient tool to push all these preferences on you. A few stubborn people with good tech skills and lots of free time will resist successfully, but most of the population will just succumb to the pressure. Okay Microsoft, if you insist that I use Edge, I will; if you insist that I use Bing, I will; if you insist that I have MSN as my starting web page, I will... and if you insist that I use Copilot with everything I do, I will.
This is not the kind of market competition that you win by building a better product. Your product may or may not be better, but that's beside the point. Being superior to Microsoft Office did not help Lotus SmartSuite much. The point is that you can simply write a script that installs your product, and sets it up as the default option, you can then run that script on most people's computers, and that's how you win.
And I don't expect other companies to just roll over and take it. They will come with their own scripts, and use their own ways to make you run them. They may not own your computer's operating system, but they may own your smartphone's operating system, or your e-mail, or at least some important application you use. I expect them to use all possible ways as a pretext to install their scripts that would override the Microsoft's script. The smartphone might offer you e.g. an app that synchronizes your computer with your smartphone; and by the way if you keep this checkbox active during installation, it will also replace the Microsoft AI with the Google AI or whatever. Or something like that.
So far, we had companies using whatever leverage they had to run their scripts on your computer, and their scripts reverting each other's actions. But the battle can get much more fun if stupid scripts get replaced by literally artificial intelligences. Think about the possibilities! They are no longer limited to replacing the first 512 bytes on your primary hard disk, or changing a record in Windows registry. They could just... do anything. And they could actually think about what they do. Like, maybe wait for the moment when the user seems to be in a good mood. Or in a bad mood, because the competitor's product has just disappointed them in some way. (Is it possible that the competitor's product was discreetly sabotaged?) They could read everything the user reads or writes, and then make a proposal using exactly the right words and arguments.
I expect the companies to fight dirty, because that's what worked for them in the past. The stakes only get higher. Get ready for the upcoming AI war! When the colorful icon in your Notepad starts changing, first slowly, once per system or application update, then faster and faster, until it becomes a blur (and your computer will keep working harder than in the good old days when you mined Bitcoins), you will know that the war is here.