What's the most impressive thing you can think of that you believe GPT-4 has around 5% chance of being capable of doing? (i.e. your belief that GPT-4 will have the capability to do this thing is around 5%)
For this question, "impressive" should be interpreted to mean something different from "surprising". What I have in mind is "impressive" in the sense of "economically useful", "comparable to or better than human experts" or "jaw-droppingly creative", etc. For example, GPT-4 being able to reverse large text would be surprising but not impressive.
The reason I'm specifying a belief probability of 5% is that if your probability is higher than that, you can try to make the task/thing more impressive to reduce the probability to 5%. If it's less than 5%, well... things can get a bit crazy so maybe try to make the task less impressive.
But if you find this constraint too restrictive, feel free to specify your own combination of the most impressive thing and your probability that GPT-4 will be able to do it, as long as the probability is in the vicinity of 5% (something like 1 to 10% would be fine). You can also specify a probability range (eg. 5-10%) if it's difficult to estimate it.