[ Question ]

Do We Change Our Minds Less Often Than We Think?

by Raemon 1 min read19th Aug 20194 comments


In "We Change Our Minds Less Often Than We Think", Eliezer quotes a study:

Over the past few years, we have discreetly approached colleagues faced with a choice between job offers, and asked them to estimate the probability that they will choose one job over another. The average confidence in the predicted choice was a modest 66%, but only 1 of the 24 respondents chose the option to which he or she initially assigned a lower probability, yielding an overall accuracy rate of 96%.
—Dale Griffin and Amos Tversky

Eliezer then notes that this radically changed the way he thought:

When I first read the words above—on August 1st, 2003, at around 3 o’clock in the afternoon—it changed the way I thought. I realized that once I could guess what my answer would be—once I could assign a higher probability to deciding one way than other—then I had, in all probability, already decided. We change our minds less often than we think. And most of the time we become able to guess what our answer will be within half a second of hearing the question.
But we change our minds less often—much less often—than we think.

But a) this seems like it's pre-replication crisis, b) regardless, a sample size of 24 is not nearly high enough for me to be very confident in this.

"How often people change their mind" seems like a fairly important question. Anyone know of further work in similar space here? Ideally asking the question from a few different angles.

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