SpaceX's Falcon 9 now advertises a cost of $62 million to launch 22,800 kg to LEO, $2,720/kg. https://ttu-ir.tdl.org/bitstream/handle/2346/74082/ICES_2018_81.pdf
Given an average solar silicon price of around $9 US per kilogram in 2020 https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/solar-silicon-price-hike/#:~:text=Compared%20to%20the%20average%20solar,%2434%20Australian%20dollars%20per%20panel.
This would increase costs 2720 / 9 = 302 times.
The cost of a solar electric system is measured in dollars per watt. The average cost for a residential system is currently $3-5 per watt. That means the average 5-kW residential system will cost $15,000-$25,000, prior to tax credits or incentives. https://sites.energycenter.org/solar/homeowners/cost#:~:text=The%20cost%20of%20a%20solar,to%20tax%20credits%20or%20incentives.
So this system would cost about 4*302 = 1208$ per watt.
This calculation is extremely approximate, but no, it will never work, even if the cost of sending a kg to orbit plummets.
This is probably the worst-case comparison for space solar, since it assumes you're just going to pack a bunch of terrestrial systems onto a rocket and shoot them into space, where they will (just like terrestrial systems) only work at a fraction of capacity due to clouds, bad sun angles, getting dirty, and night-time.
In practice they would provide a lot more power per unit mass by at least one order of magnitude and possibly two. Mirrors in space can be relatively flimsy thin things and still work since they don't need to withstand winds and other loads, ...
Sorry, I might be missing something here but
Just to add, this thread of Phil Metzger argues otherwise:
https://twitter.com/DrPhiltill/status/1583106346538311680
no, it will never work, even if the cost of sending a kg to orbit plummets.
A solar electric system on earth doesn't make 1 watt all the time. Obviously there is night, and there is geographic differences.
A quick and dirty approximation is here: https://unboundsolar.com/solar-information/sun-hours-us-map . The idea of "sun hours". Let's take the median "sun hours" of 4.
this means just 1/6 of the time do you get a rated solar panel's full output.
Negating the microwave transmission system's cost and other costs, if the cost of sending a kg t...
An interesting question to be sure, and an inspiring vision for the future. However, I think at this is too wide of a question to generate a sufficient answer and a better start would be to read more in general about energy markets (pricing, how utilities decide pricing and assess expansion projects) and the general engineering concepts behind space solar power (SSP).
Some thoughts to generate conversation:
What is the design of the power satellite system? ie are there swarms of small ones or a few large ones
What is the power beaming design? You mention microwaves however I am under the impression that the best choice wavelengths for microwave beaming are very low density- this would massively change the ground system infrastructure design and thus impact cost.
I do not work with the grid so please take the following with a healthy dose of 'I should probably at least google this...':
Pricing varies between consumers, large scale customers (heavy industry, factories, etc) may be cheaper or actually more expensive depending on load usage than households.
Transmission costs would either be negligible or hugely impactful based on the ground system infrastructure (power beamed directly to user or one large plant)
Your description mentions "a world that is fuelled exclusively", this is very unlikely in almost any scenario unless the world is radically different than the world of today and more likely SSP would play a role in modifying current electrical generation.
At some point I'd imagine it all comes down to a massive estimates spread sheet where if the cost of total construction normalized over expected lifetime + cost of estimated maintenance < price per kwh in current grid market then BUILD. Some other factors play a role as in 'has this been done before?' and 'what do we estimate demand will be in the future?' but is mostly is down to cost (this mythical cost accounting spreadsheet has been corroborated by some discussions online I've had).
Imagine a world that is fuelled exclusively by solar energy that comes from space. This would happen by having many solar panels in orbit, beaming down energy through microwave transmission.
I am trying to understand how a firm or government might price this sort of energy to consumers based on its costs. Suppose that a large energy company pays a company like spaceX to put solar satellites in orbit - how would the price of energy vary as a function of the cost of putting satellites into orbit? I am not formally trained in economics, and I was looking for a way to start framing this problem properly.