Forecasting AI Progress: A Research Agenda

by rossg, flodorner1 min read10th Aug 20204 comments

39

Ω 17

Forecasting & PredictionResearch AgendasAI TimelinesWorld ModelingAI
Frontpage
Crossposted from the AI Alignment Forum. May contain more technical jargon than usual.

AI forecasting is an important research area but lacking in a general direction. To address this issue we present a research agenda for AI forecasting that has been generated using the Delphi technique to elicit opinion from 15 leading researchers on the topic (the majority of whom are members of this community). The research agenda can be found on arXiv through this link:

Forecasting AI Progress: A Research Agenda (link to arXiv)

The agenda was framed so that it can be useful to both members of this community as well as the technological forecasting community more broadly. To these ends we plan to submit the arXiv manuscript to Technological Forecasting and Social Change, however, we will wait for roughly a month to receive comments. Please feel free to give us your thoughts here.