Is there a name of the thing where an event happens and that specific event is somewhat surprising, but overall you would have expected something in that reference class (or level of surprisingness) to happen?
E.g. It was pretty surprising that Ivanka Trump tweeted about Situational Awareness, but I sort of expect events this surprising to happen.
I propose "token surprise" (as in type-token distinction). You expected this general type of thing but not that Ivanka would be one of the tokens instantiating it.
This is sort of what "calibration" means. Maybe you could say the event is "in-calibration".
4Arthur Conmy
The Improbability Principle sounds close. The summary seems to suggest law of large numbers is one part of the pop science book, but admittedly some of the other parts ("probability lever") seem less relevant