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Call for volunteers: assessing Kurzweil, 2019

by Stuart_Armstrong
2nd Apr 2020
1 min read
21

26

Forecasting & Prediction
Frontpage

26

Call for volunteers: assessing Kurzweil, 2019
5brunoparga
4Chris Cooper
2Stuart_Armstrong
4Daniel Kokotajlo
4Stuart_Armstrong
3Koen.Holtman
2Stuart_Armstrong
3Douglas Summers-Stay
2Stuart_Armstrong
3reallyeli
2Stuart_Armstrong
3jmh
2Stuart_Armstrong
3nonlogic
2Stuart_Armstrong
3Orual
2Stuart_Armstrong
3Julija Kobrinovich
2Stuart_Armstrong
3Jsevillamol
2Stuart_Armstrong
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21 comments, sorted by
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[-]brunoparga5y50

Gwern has posted several of Kurzweil's predictions on Predictionbook and I have marked many of them as either right or wrong. In some cases I included comments on the bits of research I did.

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[-]Chris Cooper5y40

I'm guessing you want respondents to put in serious research - you're not looking for people's unreflective attitudes - sorry, intuitions?

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[-]Stuart_Armstrong5y20

I'm looking for people's intuitions on the meaning of the predictions (what was Kurzweil saying?). For most predictions, the research needed beyond that is small.

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[-]Daniel Kokotajlo5y40

I'd be happy to volunteer a bit. I don't have much time, but this sounds fun, so maybe I could do a few.

Reply
[-]Stuart_Armstrong5y40

Thanks! Now open at: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhDfTAtRMxcTqAFmc/assessing-kurzweil-s-1999-predictions-for-2019

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[-]Koen.Holtman5y30

OK -- I'll do 20 to start.

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[-]Stuart_Armstrong5y20

Thanks! Now open at: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhDfTAtRMxcTqAFmc/assessing-kurzweil-s-1999-predictions-for-2019

Reply
[-]Douglas Summers-Stay5y30

I'll do ten.

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[-]Stuart_Armstrong5y20

Thanks! Now open at: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhDfTAtRMxcTqAFmc/assessing-kurzweil-s-1999-predictions-for-2019

Reply
[-]reallyeli5y30

I'm interested — 10 please.

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[-]Stuart_Armstrong5y20

Thanks! Now open at: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhDfTAtRMxcTqAFmc/assessing-kurzweil-s-1999-predictions-for-2019

Reply
[-]jmh5y30

Time I have. Would also be willing to participate.

Reply
[-]Stuart_Armstrong5y20

Thanks! Now open at: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhDfTAtRMxcTqAFmc/assessing-kurzweil-s-1999-predictions-for-2019

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[-]nonlogic5y30

I can help: 10 to start with!

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[-]Stuart_Armstrong5y20

Thanks! Now open at: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhDfTAtRMxcTqAFmc/assessing-kurzweil-s-1999-predictions-for-2019

Reply
[-]Orual5y30

I've got time. I'm happy to validate predictions. Give me as many as you want.

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[-]Stuart_Armstrong5y20

Thanks! Now open at: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhDfTAtRMxcTqAFmc/assessing-kurzweil-s-1999-predictions-for-2019

Reply
[-]Julija Kobrinovich5y30

I'd be happy to help. 10 for start.

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[-]Stuart_Armstrong5y20

Thanks! Now open at: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhDfTAtRMxcTqAFmc/assessing-kurzweil-s-1999-predictions-for-2019

Reply
[-]Jsevillamol5y30

Sure sign me up, happy to do up to 10 for now, plausibly more later depending on how hard it turns out to be

Reply
[-]Stuart_Armstrong5y20

Thanks! Now open at: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhDfTAtRMxcTqAFmc/assessing-kurzweil-s-1999-predictions-for-2019

Reply
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21Comments

EDIT: To help assessing, go here. Cheers!

Many years ago, I helped organise an assessment of Kurzweil's predictions for 2009, in his 1999 book "The Age of Spiritual Machines". The results were mixed - I feel he had a decent track record, but it was much worse than his own self-evaluation:

Following Gwern's suggestion, let's do the same for his 2019 predictions.

Since many people have extra time on their hands, for some odd reason, I'm asking for volunteers to do this assessment. You'll be getting a certain number of predictions (how many is up to you) and giving an assessment of their correctness on a five point scale of "True", "Weakly True", "Cannot Decide", "Weakly False", and "False".

So, add a comment here if you'd like to volunteer for this assessment, or know a person/group who might want to.

Cheers!

EDIT: I've now split Kurzweil's 2019 predictions into 105 separate individual predictions.