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Call for volunteers: assessing Kurzweil, 2019 — LessWrong

Forecasting & Prediction

26

Call for volunteers: assessing Kurzweil, 2019

by Stuart_Armstrong

2nd Apr 2020

1 min read

26

Forecasting & Prediction

26

Call for volunteers: assessing Kurzweil, 2019

2Stuart_Armstrong

4Daniel Kokotajlo

4Stuart_Armstrong

2Stuart_Armstrong

3Douglas Summers-Stay

2Stuart_Armstrong

2Stuart_Armstrong

2Stuart_Armstrong

2Stuart_Armstrong

2Stuart_Armstrong

3Julija Kobrinovich

2Stuart_Armstrong

2Stuart_Armstrong

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21 comments, sorted by

Click to highlight new comments since: Today at 7:54 PM

[-]brunoparga6y50

Gwern has posted several of Kurzweil's predictions on Predictionbook and I have marked many of them as either right or wrong. In some cases I included comments on the bits of research I did.

[-]Chris Cooper6y40

I'm guessing you want respondents to put in serious research - you're not looking for people's unreflective attitudes - sorry, intuitions?

[-]Stuart_Armstrong6y20

I'm looking for people's intuitions on the meaning of the predictions (what was Kurzweil saying?). For most predictions, the research needed beyond that is small.

[-]Daniel Kokotajlo6y40

I'd be happy to volunteer a bit. I don't have much time, but this sounds fun, so maybe I could do a few.

[-]Stuart_Armstrong6y40

Thanks! Now open at: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhDfTAtRMxcTqAFmc/assessing-kurzweil-s-1999-predictions-for-2019

[-]Koen.Holtman6y30

OK -- I'll do 20 to start.

[-]Stuart_Armstrong6y20

Thanks! Now open at: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhDfTAtRMxcTqAFmc/assessing-kurzweil-s-1999-predictions-for-2019

[-]Douglas Summers-Stay6y30

I'll do ten.

[-]Stuart_Armstrong6y20

Thanks! Now open at: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhDfTAtRMxcTqAFmc/assessing-kurzweil-s-1999-predictions-for-2019

[-]reallyeli6y30

I'm interested — 10 please.

[-]Stuart_Armstrong6y20

Thanks! Now open at: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhDfTAtRMxcTqAFmc/assessing-kurzweil-s-1999-predictions-for-2019

Time I have. Would also be willing to participate.

[-]Stuart_Armstrong6y20

Thanks! Now open at: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhDfTAtRMxcTqAFmc/assessing-kurzweil-s-1999-predictions-for-2019

[-]nonlogic6y30

I can help: 10 to start with!

[-]Stuart_Armstrong6y20

Thanks! Now open at: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhDfTAtRMxcTqAFmc/assessing-kurzweil-s-1999-predictions-for-2019

I've got time. I'm happy to validate predictions. Give me as many as you want.

[-]Stuart_Armstrong6y20

Thanks! Now open at: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhDfTAtRMxcTqAFmc/assessing-kurzweil-s-1999-predictions-for-2019

[-]Julija Kobrinovich6y30

I'd be happy to help. 10 for start.

[-]Stuart_Armstrong6y20

Thanks! Now open at: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhDfTAtRMxcTqAFmc/assessing-kurzweil-s-1999-predictions-for-2019

[-]Jsevillamol6y30

Sure sign me up, happy to do up to 10 for now, plausibly more later depending on how hard it turns out to be

[-]Stuart_Armstrong6y20

Thanks! Now open at: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhDfTAtRMxcTqAFmc/assessing-kurzweil-s-1999-predictions-for-2019

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EDIT: To help assessing, go here. Cheers!

Many years ago, I helped organise an assessment of Kurzweil's predictions for 2009, in his 1999 book "The Age of Spiritual Machines". The results were mixed - I feel he had a decent track record, but it was much worse than his own self-evaluation:

Following Gwern's suggestion, let's do the same for his 2019 predictions.

Since many people have extra time on their hands, for some odd reason, I'm asking for volunteers to do this assessment. You'll be getting a certain number of predictions (how many is up to you) and giving an assessment of their correctness on a five point scale of "True", "Weakly True", "Cannot Decide", "Weakly False", and "False".

So, add a comment here if you'd like to volunteer for this assessment, or know a person/group who might want to.

Cheers!

EDIT: I've now split Kurzweil's 2019 predictions into 105 separate individual predictions.