EDIT: To help assessing, go here. Cheers!

Many years ago, I helped organise an assessment of Kurzweil's predictions for 2009, in his 1999 book "The Age of Spiritual Machines". The results were mixed - I feel he had a decent track record, but it was much worse than his own self-evaluation:

Following Gwern's suggestion, let's do the same for his 2019 predictions.

Since many people have extra time on their hands, for some odd reason, I'm asking for volunteers to do this assessment. You'll be getting a certain number of predictions (how many is up to you) and giving an assessment of their correctness on a five point scale of "True", "Weakly True", "Cannot Decide", "Weakly False", and "False".

So, add a comment here if you'd like to volunteer for this assessment, or know a person/group who might want to.


EDIT: I've now split Kurzweil's 2019 predictions into 105 separate individual predictions.

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Gwern has posted several of Kurzweil's predictions on Predictionbook and I have marked many of them as either right or wrong. In some cases I included comments on the bits of research I did.

I'm guessing you want respondents to put in serious research - you're not looking for people's unreflective attitudes - sorry, intuitions?

I'm looking for people's intuitions on the meaning of the predictions (what was Kurzweil saying?). For most predictions, the research needed beyond that is small.

I'd be happy to volunteer a bit. I don't have much time, but this sounds fun, so maybe I could do a few.

I've got time. I'm happy to validate predictions. Give me as many as you want.

Sure sign me up, happy to do up to 10 for now, plausibly more later depending on how hard it turns out to be