This is a special post for quick takes by leogao. Only they can create top-level comments. Comments here also appear on the Quick Takes page and All Posts page.
I'd take your side. In 5 years we could be in low-medium automation, high automation, or full automation, and all of these seem more likely to have <100 papers.
In low-medium automation there's no way to get 100 papers a year of output at current quality bar.
In high or full automation AIs will be doing ~all the research, but papers are designed for humans. At 100 papers per year, the average paper will probably be read by less than 5 humans. So I'd expect standards to rise and work to be consolidated into fewer papers rather than the number of papers exp... (read more)
