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reliability is surprisingly important. if I have a software tool that is 90% reliable, it's actually not that useful for automation, because I will spend way too much time manually fixing problems. this is especially a problem if I'm chaining multiple tools together in a script. I've been bit really hard by this because 90% feels pretty good if you run it a handful of times by hand, but then once you add it to your automated sweep or whatever it breaks and then you have to go in and manually fix things. and getting to 99% or 99.9% is really hard because things break in all sorts of weird ways.
I think this has lessons for AI - lack of reliability is one big reason I fail to get very much value out of AI tools. if my chatbot catastrophically hallucinates once every 10 queries, then I basically have to look up everything anyways to check. I think this is a major reason why cool demos often don't mean things that are practically useful - 90% reliable it's great for a demo (and also you can pick tasks that your AI is more reliable at, rather than tasks which are actually useful in practice). this is an informing factor for why my timelines are longer than some other people's
Perhaps it shouldn't be too surprising. Reliability, machine precision, economy are likely the deciding factors to whether many (most?) technologies take off. The classic RoP case study: the bike.
Motorola engineers figured this out a few decades ago, even 99.99 to 99.999 makes a huge difference on a large scale. They even published a few interesting papers and monographs on it from what I recall.
6gietema
This can be explained when thinking about what these accuracy levels mean: 99.99% accuracy is one error every 10K trials. 99.999% accuracy is one error every 100K trials. So the 99.999% system is 10x better! When errors are costly and you’re operating at scale, this is a huge difference.