This is a special post for quick takes by leogao. Only they can create top-level comments. Comments here also appear on the Quick Takes page and All Posts page.
Comment Permalink
i predict that on Jan 1 2029, neither openai nor anthropic will be near-fully automated, by which i mean <=5 people are even plausibly making important decisions (like, everyone else could go on vacation and it would not slow the company down at all). Celestia predicts otherwise
if WWIII happens, resolves NA. if a localized Taiwan war happens but doesn't escalate to WWIII, the bet is still on. if there's a big recession, the bet is still on.
1