Thomas Kwa's Shortform

Thomas Kwa

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An indiscriminate space weapon against low earth orbit satellites is feasible for any spacefaring nation. Recent rumors claim that Russia is already developing one, so I'm writing a post about it. I will explain why I think

This weapon could require just one launch to destroy every satellite in low Earth orbit, including all Starlinks, and deny it to everyone for months to years
It would consist of about 10^9 small ball bearings in retrograde orbit. An alternate design involves a nuclear device.
Further launches could deny GEO and other orbits
Russia, China, or the US could have one in orbit right now, and Russia may be incentivized to use one
Defense of current space assets is nearly impossible, whether by shooting it down or evading the debris [edit: I no longer believe this. Shielding of military satellites and moving Starlink to VLEO are both potentially viable]
Once the weapon goes off the strategic landscape in space is unclear to me

What objections or details should I include? Also is it a dangerous infohazard?

4leogao10mo

if I understand correctly, this is a really straightforward attack (the bearing ball version at least - the nuclear weapon version is obviously less accessible). shouldn't basically any spacefaring country be able to do this? in fact, even any private citizen could if they manage to sneak it past the regulators? though maybe this is just strictly dominated by bioweapon risk (more tractable + impactful)

Yes any spacefaring country, probably not most private citizens given the ITAR controls that are already put on rocket tech to regulate ballistic missiles. As for bioweapons, they're higher on the escalation ladder and harder to control. Will be sure to think about it more and cover this

Thomas Kwa's Shortform

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Thomas Kwa's Shortform

12

Ω 7