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Are Eliezer and Nate right that continuing the AI program will almost certainly lead to extinction or something approximately as disastrous as extinction?
"How can we get more evidence on whether scheming is plausible?" - What if we ran experiments where we included some pressure towards scheming (either RL or fine-tuning) and we attempted to determine the minimum such pressure required to cause scheming? We could further attempt to see how this interacts with scaling.
2Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel
The important thing is that both do active learning & decisionmaking & search, i.e. RL. *
LLMs don't do that. So the gain from doing that is huge.
Synthetic data is a bit of a weird word that get's thrown around a lot. There are fundamental limits on how much information resampling from the same data source will yield about completely different domains. So that seems a bit silly. Ofc sometimes with synthetic data people just mean doing rollouts, i.e. RL.
*the word RL sometimes gets mistaken for only very specific reinforcement learning algorithm. I mean here a very general class of algorithms that solve MDPs.