Shouldn't we start to see the METR trend bending upwards if this was the case? Let T be time Horizon, A algorithmic efficiency, C training compute, E experimental compute, L labor and S speedup. 

Suppose, 

$T=(AC{)}^{\delta }$

$\dot{A}=A^{1-\beta }\left[\right(SL{)}^{\alpha }{E}^{1-\alpha }{]}^{\lambda }$

Then deriving the balanced growth path 

$g_T=\delta r{g}_S+\delta [r{g}_L+\frac{\lambda (1-\alpha )}{\beta }{g}_E+g_C]$

So if $g_S$ starting growing rapidly, we should see time horizon trend increase, potentially by a lot. Now maybe Opus 4.5 is evidence of this, but I'm skeptical so far. Better argument is that there is some delay from getting better research to better models because of training time, so we haven't seen it yet - though this rules out substantial speedup before maybe 4 months ago.