High Failure-Rate Solutions

by Eneasz 1 min read16th Dec 201011 comments


Short interview, doesn't go into too much depth, but makes an interesting point relevant to LW:

"When you’re mitigating a complex problem, you become a bad picker. It’s too complicated, so you can’t separate the ideas that are going to work and the ones that won’t. [...] But if we were gonna use the venture-capital method – if we were willing to admit we weren’t competent pickers and even all the wise men gathering in the Oval Office were not going to be able to pick the winner from the loser – we would have gone in there with 30 ways of plugging up that hole at one time and realized that maybe 29 were gonna fail and one was going to stop the ecological disaster. But that’s not what we did."



Are there any potential solutions other than "create the first GAI and ensure it's provably Friendly" that can be advanced simultaneously?