Topic: workplace world-modeling

• A friend's manager tasked them with estimating ~10 parameters for a model. Choosing a single parameter very-incorrectly would presumably make the bottom line nonsense. My friend largely didn't understand the model and what the parameters meant; if you'd asked them "can you confidently determine what each of the parameters means" presumably they would have noticed the answer was no. (If I understand the situation correctly, it was crazy for the manager to expect my friend to do this task.) They should have told their manager "I can't do this" or "I'm uncertain about what these four parameters are; here's my best guess of a very precise description for each; please check this carefully and let me know." Instead I think they just gave their best guess for the parameters! (Edit: also I think they thought the model was bad but I don't think they told their manager that.)
• Another friend's manager tasked them with estimating how many hours it would take to evaluate applications for their org's hiring round. If my friend had known details of the application process, they could have estimated the number of applicants at each stage and the time to review each applicant at each stage. But the org hadn't decided what the stages were yet. They should have told their manager "I can't do this — but if evaluation-time is a crux for what-the-application-process-should-look-like, I can brainstorm several possibilities (or you can tell me the top possibilities) and estimate evaluation-time for each." Instead I think they either made up a mainline process and made an estimate for that or made up several possibilities and made an estimate for each (without checking in with the manager), not sure.

Both friends are smart, very involved in the EA/rationality community, and working at AI safety orgs.

I'd totally avoid making these mistakes. What's going on here?

Some hypotheses (not exclusive):

• Generally insufficient communication with manager
  • It's crazy that they tell me about this stuff and don't tell their managers? Actually maybe they didn't notice the problems until i said "wait what, how are you supposed to do that." But after that they still didn't put the tasks on hold and tell their managers!
• Generally insufficient [disagreeableness / force of will / willingness to contradict manager]
• Thinking you're being graded on a curve, rather than realizing that when you're estimating a bottom-line-number-to-inform-decisions, what matters is how accurate it is — sometimes getting 9/10 answers right is no better than 0/10; if you're in such a situation and you probably won't get 10/10 you have to say "I can't do this" rather than just do your best
• Lack of heroic responsibility; thinking what your manager wants is for you to do the task they told you to rather than do so if you straightforwardly can without wasting time, and otherwise check in

Anyway this shortform was prompted by world-modeling curiosity but there are some upshots:

• Managees, check in with your managers when (1) you think you shouldn't be doing this task and your manager doesn't understand why or (2) you're going to spend time doing stuff and you're not sure what your manager wants and a quick DM would tell you
• Managers, cause your managees to check in with you! Some of them aren't doing so enough! Even though you've already nudged them to do so more and they agreed! You're leaving lots of value on the table!

but that's not all of it; there's also the skill of noticing when there's an issue.

I'd also be interested in utterances I can utter at friends in such situations to fix the problem, but I doubt I can do much better than "it seems like there's an issue, X; if you agree you should obviously check in with your manager."