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alternative history: what if Bayes rule had never been discovered?

by Yoav Ravid 4mo11th May 20193 comments

7


In trying to understand how Bayesian probability is used, I'm curious to know what wouldn't have been possible without it. how important was it in the course of human discovery, and in turn, how it effected history.

I don't demand rigorous answers, feel free to speculate and throw possibilities as you like.

Bonus question: if Bayes didn't discover it, when would it have to be discovered? (full speculation mode)

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1 Answers

Bonus question: if Bayes didn't discover it, when would it have to be discovered? (full speculation mode)

No speculation needed: Laplace would have discovered it, publishing in 1774, nine years after Bayes' Essay appeared.

There's no way it wouldn't have been discovered. The mathematics is simple, and "inverse probability" (as it was called then) is a major part of what is done with probability and statistics.