Previously: On the Podcast, Quotes from the Paper

This is a post in three parts.

The first part is my attempt to condense Leopold Aschenbrenner’s paper and model into its load bearing elements and core logic and dependencies.

Two versions here, a long version that attempts to compress with minimal loss, and a short version that gives the gist.

The second part goes over where I agree and disagree, and briefly explains why.

The third part is the summary of other people’s reactions and related discussions, which will also include my own perspectives on related issues.

My goal is often to ask ‘what if.’ There is a lot I disagree with. For each subquestion, what would I think here, if the rest was accurate, or a lot of it was accurate?

Summary of Biggest Agreements and Disagreements

I had Leopold review a draft of this post. After going back and forth, I got a much better idea of his positions. They turned out to be a lot closer to mine than I realized on many fronts.

The biggest agreement is on cybersecurity and other security for the labs. I think this holds with or without the rest of the argument. This includes the need to build the data centers in America.

The arguments on power seem mostly right if the path to AGI and ASI is centrally hyperscaling on current approaches and happens quickly. I am highly uncertain about that being the path, but also America badly needs permitting reform and to build massive new sources of electrical power.

Those are both areas where the obvious responses are great ideas if we are not on the verge of AGI and will remain in the ‘economic normal’ scenario indefinitely. We should do those things.

Otherwise, while Leopold’s scenarios are possible, I am not convinced.

I do not believe America should push to AGI and ASI faster. I am still convinced that advancing frontier models at major labs faster is a mistake and one should not do that. To change that, fixing security issues (so we didn’t fully hand everything over) and power issues (so we would be able to take advantage) would be necessary but not sufficient, due to the disagreements that follow.

The most central crux is that to me a path like Leopold predicts and advocates for too frequently dooms humanity. He agrees that it is a risky path, but has more hope in it than I do, and sees no better alternative.

Everyone loses if we push ahead without properly solving alignment. Leopold...

Aaron_Scher's Shortform

3

Aaron_Scher's Shortform

3