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76% of AAAI survey respondents believe scaling current approaches is "unlikely" or "very unlikely" to achieve AGI.
I haven't seen this AAAI 2025 report + survey posted anywhere. On the survey: 475 respondents, primarily academic (67%) and corporate (19%).
It has some other bits on hype, paradigm diversity, academia's role, and geopolitical aspects.
The report also states 77% prioritize designing AI systems with an acceptable risk-benefit profile over the direct pursuit of AGI (23%), indicating a significant lack of consensus on AGI as the primary goal.