This is a special post for quick takes by Cleo Nardo. Only they can create top-level comments. Comments here also appear on the Quick Takes page and All Posts page.
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I was especially impressed by Cleo Nardo's submission. She guessed 10.6%, 34.8%, 50%, 65.2%, and 89.4% without even looking at the CSV, which were all within a couple percent of the correct values.
Never download data. Simply start with the right prior. It's called updatelessness or something.
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