This is a special post for quick takes by Raemon. Only they can create top-level comments. Comments here also appear on the Quick Takes page and All Posts page.
This is an experiment in short-form content on LW2.0. I'll be using the comment section of this post as a repository of short, sometimes-half-baked posts that either:
don't feel ready to be written up as a full post
I think the process of writing them up might make them worse (i.e. longer than they need to be)
I ask people not to create top-level comments here, but feel free to reply to comments like you would a FB post.
In Fluent, Cruxy Predictions I'm arguing that it's valuable to be not merely "capable" but "fluent" in:
figuring out what would actually change your decisions
operationalize it as an observable bet
make a Fatebook prediction about it, so that you can become more calibrated about your decisionmaking over time.
The third step is not that hard and there are nice tools to streamline it. But the first two steps are each pretty difficult.
But most of the nearterm value comes from #1, and vague hints of #2. The extra effort to turn #2 into something you can grade on Fatebook only pays off longerterm. So, I think probably you should focus on this before worrying too much about integrating Fatebook into your life.
This is an experiment in short-form content on LW2.0. I'll be using the comment section of this post as a repository of short, sometimes-half-baked posts that either:
I ask people not to create top-level comments here, but feel free to reply to comments like you would a FB post.