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*4-4
I'm not aware of a serious report.
My own guess is that the economic impacts if we froze today are pretty small, much less than the impact of the internet (which at its peak contributed ~0.5 percentage points yearly to US GDP growth).
Notably this is implicitly a very different counterfactual prediction than the "AI as Normal Technology" folks or that of some other economists; if you believe economic impact is primarily gated by diffusion and adoption you should expect to see a lot of lag relative to current impact.
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Predictions for capabilities one year out is much harder imo, both because the direct capabilities trajectory is hard and because it's hard to know exactly when some capabilities cross from "toy" to "can substitute for large chunks of cognitive labor," might look really nonlinear.
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