This is a special post for quick takes by Raemon. Only they can create top-level comments. Comments here also appear on the Quick Takes page and All Posts page.
This is an experiment in short-form content on LW2.0. I'll be using the comment section of this post as a repository of short, sometimes-half-baked posts that either:
don't feel ready to be written up as a full post
I think the process of writing them up might make them worse (i.e. longer than they need to be)
I ask people not to create top-level comments here, but feel free to reply to comments like you would a FB post.
Yeah tbc think of my views here as "strong opinions weakly held," I could definitely be wrong!
In my opinion, the prior that things that look like a big deal barely shows up if at all in the aggregate growth statistics has generally held up. Obviously at some point this is no longer true (if we have a billion remote-only superintelligences running around we'd likely see either massive economic growth or death).
I'm not sure where the crossover points are (and obviously in some sense the underlying distribution is kinda smooth), an intuitive model to me is when AIs cross over from being better modeled as "high-skilled immigration" than as "tools." [1]Imo they are still very tool-shaped for most remote-only jobs that aren't programming.
this isn't necessarily true because of jaggedness. Eg if we get sustained across-the-board superhuman R&D but we freeze further AI R&D specifically, the non-AI scientific advances will probably pay off in GDP...eventually.
This is an experiment in short-form content on LW2.0. I'll be using the comment section of this post as a repository of short, sometimes-half-baked posts that either:
I ask people not to create top-level comments here, but feel free to reply to comments like you would a FB post.