It’s called Plan A because it’s a recommendation, not a prediction. It’s what we think should happen, not what will happen, though we think it’s plausible enough to aim for.
It’s called AI 2040 because in it, they delay the creation of superintelligence to 2040. It would have happened much sooner (in 2030, to be precise) if not for decisive action on the part of the US and Chinese governments.
As with AI 2027, summaries don’t really do it justice, since the whole point was to be detailed and comprehensive and work things out step by step rather than rely on high-level abstractions like doom or utopia.
Read the scenario at ai-2040.com. You can listen to it on audio, or view it on mobile, but the experience is significantly better on a normal computer.
What’s next for us?
Well, first we are going to respond to comments and otherwise engage with whatever conversation, responses, critiques, etc. that AI 2040: Plan A sparks. Beyond that, we aren’t sure yet. In general our mission is to help make AGI go well, and now we’ve tried out both forecasting and planning. Maybe we’ll get started on another big scenario. On the other hand, these megaprojects take so much time…
Why do so many futuristic forecasts fail to account for likely progress in other important fields? For instance, what happens to companies like Merge Labs and Neuralink in your scenario? If we have BCIs capable of delivering a +3–4 SD boost, wouldn't that turn the world upside down even without any further progress in AI?
It seems quite likely to me that, in soft takeoff scenarios, we will experience a major cultural or technological shift driven by advances in other technological domains before the emergence of ASI.
Agree, and I think the replies have, to some extent, limited themselves in scope by focusing on current implementation barriers. It doesn't seem very useful, at least to me, to debate the mechanics of augmented human intelligence when the assumption is that AGI/ASI is coming (which are also going to require equally massive breakthroughs). Hypothetically, those would catalyze said breakthroughs and push the frontier far beyond its current state.
I honestly think the most important (and equally optimistic) developments when it comes to preserving human agenc... (read more)
If you're looking for low-hanging fruit, a full taxonomy of the causes of poor sleep quality in adults, for use by the doctors to whom they complain, seems like it would improve day-time cognitive function.
3Thomas Larsen
I agree with the overall point! We tried to think through a bunch of technological progress but no doubt were missing some important stuff.
See, for example:
- Military power
- Robots (mentioned throughout the secnario)
- Lie detectors
I haven't looked into BCIs much at all it's plausible they should play a bigger role earlier.
For the past year, we at the AI Futures Project have been sinking most of our time into our next big scenario. Now it’s done!
It’s called AI 2040: Plan A.
It’s called Plan A because it’s a recommendation, not a prediction. It’s what we think should happen, not what will happen, though we think it’s plausible enough to aim for.
It’s called AI 2040 because in it, they delay the creation of superintelligence to 2040. It would have happened much sooner (in 2030, to be precise) if not for decisive action on the part of the US and Chinese governments.
As with AI 2027, summaries don’t really do it justice, since the whole point was to be detailed and comprehensive and work things out step by step rather than rely on high-level abstractions like doom or utopia.
Read the scenario at ai-2040.com. You can listen to it on audio, or view it on mobile, but the experience is significantly better on a normal computer.
What’s next for us?
Well, first we are going to respond to comments and otherwise engage with whatever conversation, responses, critiques, etc. that AI 2040: Plan A sparks. Beyond that, we aren’t sure yet. In general our mission is to help make AGI go well, and now we’ve tried out both forecasting and planning. Maybe we’ll get started on another big scenario. On the other hand, these megaprojects take so much time…