It’s called Plan A because it’s a recommendation, not a prediction. It’s what we think should happen, not what will happen, though we think it’s plausible enough to aim for.
It’s called AI 2040 because in it, they delay the creation of superintelligence to 2040. It would have happened much sooner (in 2030, to be precise) if not for decisive action on the part of the US and Chinese governments.
As with AI 2027, summaries don’t really do it justice, since the whole point was to be detailed and comprehensive and work things out step by step rather than rely on high-level abstractions like doom or utopia.
Read the scenario at ai-2040.com. You can listen to it on audio, or view it on mobile, but the experience is significantly better on a normal computer.
What’s next for us?
Well, first we are going to respond to comments and otherwise engage with whatever conversation, responses, critiques, etc. that AI 2040: Plan A sparks. Beyond that, we aren’t sure yet. In general our mission is to help make AGI go well, and now we’ve tried out both forecasting and planning. Maybe we’ll get started on another big scenario. On the other hand, these megaprojects take so much time…
It's not just about BCIs. There are a number of technologies capable of flipping the board on the path to singularity, beyond ASI itself. However, this forecast ignores them all and doesn't explicitly explain what the overall research landscape in these fields will look like given the slow takeoff and the presence of powerful AI within about 10 years.
For example:
What are gene_smith and kman doing in the Plan A world? (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JEhW3HDMKzekDShva/significantly-enhancing-adult-intelligence-with-gene-editing) We live in a world where AI significantly accelerates scientific discovery, but the problem of delivering edited genes to the brain remains unresolved until the singularity? Isn't Significantly Enhancing Adult Intelligence With Gene Editing Possible?
What are Eon.Systems and E11bio doing? (https://brainemulation.mxschons.com/) Does the presence of powerful AI capable of automating scientific progress significantly reduce the timeframe for WBE?
The same is true for BCI and what Merge Labs and Neuralink are doing. For example, it would be pretty obvious to try something like this (and again, we'll have a powerful AI capable of generating better ideas): "If we train an AI to send similar patterns as lots of extra (developmentally integrated) neurons would, we've effectively boosted someone's brain mass. I strongly suspect that the relevant algorithms for training such an AI are compactly specifiable, since it seems like neurons learn from simple local firing statistics." (https://www.lesswrong.com/s/Wy8smXGZ7PsS9CpgP/p/ewZXQgzaCvzdSvtWE)
What is Michael Levin doing with his bioelectricity? Yudkowsky considers work on enhancing adult intelligence the most important priority after an AI pause — so what are he and MIRI actually doing on that front? What about the field of NeuroAI (Astera Institute, Allen Institute, Amaranth.foundation)?
My point is that fundamental breakthroughs in all these fields are turning the tide. And when we have 10+ years and a powerful AI, I think there's a pretty good chance that some of this will work BEFORE AI takes off.
For the past year, we at the AI Futures Project have been sinking most of our time into our next big scenario. Now it’s done!
It’s called AI 2040: Plan A.
It’s called Plan A because it’s a recommendation, not a prediction. It’s what we think should happen, not what will happen, though we think it’s plausible enough to aim for.
It’s called AI 2040 because in it, they delay the creation of superintelligence to 2040. It would have happened much sooner (in 2030, to be precise) if not for decisive action on the part of the US and Chinese governments.
As with AI 2027, summaries don’t really do it justice, since the whole point was to be detailed and comprehensive and work things out step by step rather than rely on high-level abstractions like doom or utopia.
Read the scenario at ai-2040.com. You can listen to it on audio, or view it on mobile, but the experience is significantly better on a normal computer.
What’s next for us?
Well, first we are going to respond to comments and otherwise engage with whatever conversation, responses, critiques, etc. that AI 2040: Plan A sparks. Beyond that, we aren’t sure yet. In general our mission is to help make AGI go well, and now we’ve tried out both forecasting and planning. Maybe we’ll get started on another big scenario. On the other hand, these megaprojects take so much time…