Hi! We're interested in beefing up our forecasting and threat modeling skills so that we understand the problems of TAI and AI existential safety better.

We're pretty much of a technical background, but occasionally discuss governance and policy matters.

We are committed 1-2 hours per week, 1 hour on a call and occasionally prepping with a short reading.

Exercises we've done

• estimates on https://forecast.elicit.org/
• fermi modeling scenarios (e.g. how to fermi model)
• writing scenarios (vague scifi)
• responding to papers or blog posts

Post we've produced

Directions we're thinking of taking the group in:

• formal prediction tracking, like on elicit but more about your personal journey rethinking and updating on an individual question
• concrete goals like production of high quality posts

We are on a discord server, and we're looking to grow to around 20 people.

We think that having a space where no ideas are stupid is critical for self-development, and we see this group as a bridge between casual conversation and larger communities like lesswrong and the alignment forum.

Please reach out if you'd like to join!