This is a special post for quick takes by Eric Neyman. Only they can create top-level comments. Comments here also appear on the Quick Takes page and All Posts page.
What are some examples of people making a prediction of the form "Although X happening seems like obviously a bad thing, in fact the good second-order effects would outweigh the bad first-order effects, so X is good actually", and then turning out to be correct?
(Loosely inspired by this quick take, although I definitely don't mean to imply that the author is making such a prediction in this case.)
The arguments are as valid as any other price-floor argument, the reason many economists are skeptical is (according to my understanding of the evidence) because of limited experimental validation, and opposite effects when looking at correlational data, however with many of that correlational data one is reminded of the scientist who believes that ACs make rooms warmer rather than cooler. That is, it seems very likely that believing minimum wages are good is a luxury belief which people can afford to hold & implement when they are richer and their economy is growing, so you see a correlation between minimum wage levels and economic growth. Especially in developed OECD countries.
"Yes, the thing this person saying is heinous and will have bad consequences, but punishing them for it will create chilling effects that would outweigh the good first-order effects"