This deserves a full post, but for now a quick take: in my opinion, P(no AI takeover) = 75%, P(future goes extremely well | no AI takeover) = 20%, and most of the value of the future is in worlds where it goes extremely well (and comparatively little value comes from locking in a world that's good-but-not-great).
Under this view, an intervention is good insofar as it affects P(no AI takeover) * P(things go really well | no AI takeover). Suppose that a given intervention can change P(no AI takeover) and/or P(future goes extremely well | no AI takeover). Then the overall effect of the intervention is proportional to ΔP(no AI takeover) * P(things go really well | no AI takeover) + P(no AI takeover) * ΔP(things go really well | no AI takeover).
Plugging in my numbers, this gives us 0.2 * ΔP(no AI takeover) + 0.75 * ΔP(things go really well | no AI takeover).
And yet, I think that very little AI safety work focuses on affecting P(things go really well | no AI takeover). Probably Forethought is doing the best work in this space.
(And I don't think it's a tractability issue: I think affecting P(things go really well | no AI takeover) is pretty tractable!)
(Of course, if you think P(AI takeover) is 90%, that would probably be a crux.)
Hi Juan, cool work! TBC, the sort of work I'm most excited about here is less about developing white-box techniques for detecting virtues and more about designing behavioral evaluations that AI developers could implement and iterate against for improve the positive traits of their models.