Open problems in human rationality: guesses

by romeostevensit 2mo2nd Aug 20198 comments


A couple months back Raemon wrote this excellent question to which Scott Alexander shared his ongoing list. I think it would be great to have people try to give their current guesses for a lot of these. My guesses in a comment below. My intuition is that value is created in four ways from this:

1. Discovery of things you didn't realize you believed in the process of writing the answer.

2. Generation of cruxes if people give you feedback/alternatives for answers.

3. Realization that your guess isn't even wrong, but fundamentally wasn't built from building blocks that can, in principle, be rearranged to form a correct answer.

4. Help in coordination as people get a sense of what others believe about navigating this space. Seeing cognitive diversity on fundamental questions has helped me in this area.