The difficulty in predicting AI, in three lines

by Stuart_Armstrong 1 min read2nd Oct 201221 comments


An over-simplification, but an evocative one:

  • The social sciences are contentious, their predictions questionable.
  • And yet social sciences use the scientific method; AI predictions generally don't.
  • Hence predictions involving human-level AI should be treated as less certain than any prediction in the social sciences.