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How many species has humanity driven extinct?

by Raemon
2nd Aug 2025
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World Modeling
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How many species has humanity driven extinct?
26Shankar Sivarajan
11Canaletto
3localdeity
1cdt
10Jackson Wagner
9cdt
3Raemon
3RationalElf
3Raemon
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[-]Shankar Sivarajan1mo265

I think IUCN number, which is counting extinctions since 1500 AD, is good. They have an explicit list of species they're classifying as extinct (927 of them as of this writing: stats),  and they're cognizant of the problem of overcategorizing them:

the intention is generally to be extremely precautionary about categorizing taxa as EX or EW. An erroneous extinction classification can have several unfortunate consequences. It can bring the list into disrepute, but more seriously, it can lead to the “Romeo error,” whereby a species is believed to be extinct so conservation funding, habitat protection, and even surveys cease before it is really too late

(doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.01044.x)

They also have a list of 1381 species they think are probably extinct, but still list as "critically endangered" because they don't think they've looked hard enough yet.

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[-]Canaletto1mo114

You probably also have to estimate some sort of "no human take off" counterfactual extinction rate and compare them to get the upper bound.

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[-]localdeity1mo30

Yeah, I wonder: at what rate do species go extinct without human intervention?  Like, if we were responsible for 90% of extinctions or 10% of extinctions, that seems a pretty important distinction.  Also, the ratio of "human-caused" to "non-human-caused" extinctions seems like it has the advantage that (I would expect) it would obviate concerns about what counts as different species or not: if one researcher draws the line more finely than another, and hence thinks there are 10x as many species as the other, I expect they'll produce estimates of ~10x for both the numerator and the denominator, which will cancel out.

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[-]cdt1mo10

There is a lot of work on this under the title "background extinction rate" - see https://www.nature.com/articles/nature09678 for a review. Estimates for the current extinction rate (measured in extinctions/million species years) can be anywhere from 10-1000x faster than the background extinction rate, but it depends a lot on the technique used and the time interval measured. EDIT: typo in numbers

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[-]Jackson Wagner1mo*102

IUCN numbers are a decent starting point, although as Shankar notes, the IUCN is too conservative in the sense that they wait a long time before finally conceding a species has gone fully extinct.

For megafauna extinctions during the Ice Age, wikipedia tallies up 168 lost species.  (On the one hand, maybe not literally all of these were due to humans.  But on the other hand, our record of creatures living 12,000 years ago is probably pretty spotty compared to today, so we might be missing a bunch!)  https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late_Pleistocene_extinctions 

Another difficult aspect of trying to estimate "how many species have gone extinct" is that we have lots of detailed information about mammals and birds, okay info about reptiles, fish, etc, but then MUCH spottier information about insects, stuff like plankton or bacteria, etc.  And while there are about 6000 mammal and 11,000 bird species worldwide, there are maybe somewhere around a million species of insect, and who knows how many types of bacteria / plankton / whatever. 

https://ourworldindata.org/how-many-species-are-there

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-of-species-evaluated-iucn 

 (For instance, the IUCN data on actual confirmed extinctions has a pretty different ranking than their list of at-risk endangered species: )

So for mammals + birds and a few other groups, you can get a pretty definitive estimate of "what percentage of species have gone extinct in the last few hundred years".  But if you are asking about ALL species, then your answer almost entirely depends on how you choose to extrapolate the well-documented mammal/bird rates to much larger groups like insects, plants, fungi, and bacteria (and indeed, weird activists will extrapolate in stupid, biased ways all the time).  It's not straightforward to figure out how to do this right, since different kinds of life have different rates of extinction -- plants, for instance, seem to almost never go extinct compared to animals.  Birds seem more robust than mammals to the effects of human civilization (since they can fly, they're less immediately-screwed than land-dwelling creatures, when humans break up previously homogenous environments into isolated patches of habitat separated by roads, fences, farmland, etc).  Meanwhile, amphibians' absorbent skin and pretty specialized habitat needs make them especially vulnerable to extinction via pollution and habitat disruption.  Then there are creatures like hard corals where it's like "if the ocean becomes X amount more acidic then they basically all die at once".  So... are insects resilient like plants, or extra vulnerable like amphibians or corals?  Personally I have no idea.  Are thousands of bacteria species going extinct all the time for weird chemical or micro-ecological reasons that we barely understand?  Or would they just cruise right through even a worst-case meteor strike while hardly batting an eyelid?  Hard to say; too bad they make up maybe 90% of all species!

You could try to construct some weighting scheme to reflect the intuition that obviously losing a species of tiger or elephant is worse than losing one of 10,000 small indistinguishable beetles.  Aside from the difficulty of operationalizing "how much do i care about each species" (physical size?  squared neuron count?  upweight mammals vs otherwise-equal birds because they're more closely related to ourselves? or should birds get extra points for being colorful and pretty?), such a project also runs into a lot of interesting questions about phylogenetics and evolutionary distinctiveness.  (Two "different" "species" that actually only differ by a few mutations, IMO is unfair double-counting; they're basically just one species and shouldn't be entitled to double the conservation effort.  Meanwhile, very unique species that have been evolving along their own unusual track for millions of years seem like they should get credit for punching above their weight in terms of maintaining earth's diversity of life.  Some species also contain within themselves lots of interesting variation and distinct sub-populations, while other species are more of a homogenous monoculture.  et cetera.)

The above info is all a rough and probably misunderstood paraphrase of stuff my wife has told me over the years; she runs the "Ecoresilience Initiative", a nascent sort of EA-for-biodiversity research group.  Email her there if you want to learn more!
https://ecoresilience.weebly.com/ 

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[-]cdt1mo92

Based on how much habitat we've destroyed, and assuming some number of species per unit-area

 

Can you elaborate on this? What about the estimates did you find implausible?

Species-area relationships are pretty reliable when used for estimating other factors. Using them for extinction estimation is upward-biased. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09985 suggests the bias of overestimation is a similar magnitude as the underestimation caused by dark extinctions (extinctions of species before they are classified). 

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[-]Raemon1mo30

Maybe to be clear: I am also interested in a rationalist looking over the data of habit-destruction-extrapolation and arguing "I think this argument is actually good, here are the things I doublechecked." I just don't trust an eco group not to have motivatedly used degrees of freedom to exaggerate.

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[-]RationalElf1mo32

Are you counting species we might have driven to extinction a long time ago (e.g. in prehistory when humans first got to continents other than Africa) or just in the less 200 years or something? 

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[-]Raemon1mo30

A long time ago is included, though maybe separating them out into groups is nice.

(I think maybe "list of species who have gone extinct, and, % confidence that we were the ones who did it" is like the ideal answer. 

Like, I think we maybe killed the neanderthals, but maybe that was more like just being more reproductively successful in a way that isn't quite "we drove them extinct" in the way we almost killed some species of whales and probably killed the mammoths, but kinda ambiguous)

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Does anyone know, like, a reasonable lower bound on number of species humanity has driven extinct? 

I've seen crazy high numbers that (last I checked) seemed to be an extrapolation by people with an ideological ax to grind. (Based on how much habitat we've destroyed, and assuming some number of species per unit-area). ChatGPT suggested "900" as the lower bound based on some snippet they found from "International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN)", but looking into it was a enough work I thought I might toss it to the LessWrong folk and see if anyone could get a more confident answer.