As part of this prediction market, I play a game of chess against most new LLM releases. I am copying my game against Deepseek-V4 and my analysis below, for those who may be interested. Before the game, the market gave the model 1.4% EV^[1].

Deepseek v4 played poorly, blundering a piece in the opening with 11... Bd6 and several pawns thereafter. The game was adjudicated^[2] as a win for me. I believe it is a much weaker model than Opus 4.7 and GPT-5.5. 

1. d4 Nf6 2. c4 e6 3. g3 d5 4. Nf3 Be7 5. Bg2 O-O 6. O-O dxc4 7. Na3 c5 8. Nxc4 Nc6 9. dxc5 Bxc5 10. a3 Qe7 11. b4 Bd6 12. Qxd6 Rd8 13. Qxe7 Nxe7 14. Bb2 a5 15. Nxa5 e5 1-0

1. ^{^}

   Since it resolves 50% for a draw and 100% for a win.

2. ^{^}

   According to the rule "If I judge that my opponent’s position is hopelessly lost, at the level of being down a rook without compensation, I will submit the current position to a friend. If they agree that the position is lost, the game will be adjudicated as a win for me."