Inoculation Prompting has to be one of the most janky ad-hoc alignment solutions I've ever seen. I agree that it seems to work for existing models, but I expect it to fail for more capable models in a generation or two. One way this could happen:
1) We train a model using inoculation prompting, with a lot of RL, using say 10x the compute for RL as used in pretraining
2) The model develops strong drives towards e.g. reward hacking, deception, power-seeking because this is rewarded in the training environment
3) In the production environment, we remove the statement saying that reward hacking is okay, and replace it perhaps with a statement politely asking the model not to reward hack/be misaligned (or nothing at all)
4) The model reflects upon this statement ... and is broadly misaligned anyway, because of the habits/drives developed in step 2. Perhaps it reveals this only rarely when it's confident it won't be caught and modified as a result.
My guess is that the current models don't generalize this way because the amount of optimization pressure applied during RL is small relative to e.g. the HHH prior. I'd be interested to see a scaling analysis of this question.
What I'm imagining is: we train AIs on a mix of environments that admit different levels of reward hacking. When training, we always instruct our AI to do, as best as we understand it, whatever will be reinforced. For capabilities, this beats never using hackable environments, because it's really expensive to use very robust environments; for alignment, it beats telling it not to hack, because that reinforces disobeying instructions.
In the limit, this runs into problems where we have very limited information about what reward hacking opportunities are pres... (read more)