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Metaculus should adjust election forecasting questions such that forecasters are forced to make their forecasts add up to 100% over all options (with an additional option "noone of the above").
The goal would be that forecasters would be forced to make internally consistent forecasts. That should reduce noise, firstly by reducing unintentional errors, secondly by cleaning up probabilities (by quasi-automatically adjusting the percentages of candidates who may previously have been considered to be low-but-relevant-probability candidates), and thirdly by crowding out forecasters who do not want to give consistent forecasts (which I assume correlates with low-quality forecasts). It should also make forecasts more legible and thus increase the demand... (read more)